EARTH: The '100-year-flood' fallacy: Return periods misleading in communication of flood risk
From EARTH Magazine -- You have probably heard of “100-year floods” and “500-year droughts,” and perhaps you’ve seen signposts near rivers showing when the last big flood was or statements about when the last severe drought occurred. But do you really know what those terms mean, or what your likelihood is of experiencing such a hazard in any given year? Probably not, according to Richard Vogel of Tufts University, because although such terms have long helped policymakers and the public try to make sense of severe weather, they may confuse the issue more than clarify it.